Skip to content
FlarientFlarient
1.3 · G0 Quiet -2 nT CWhat do these mean?

Prediction Market

auroraOPEN

Will aurora be visible below latitude 55°N?

Auto-generated market for event: G1 MODERATE Geomagnetic Storm — 2026-10-04. G1 (MODERATE) geomagnetic storm in progress. Kp 5.3, solar wind 637 km/s, Bz 4.5 nT. Aurora may be visible at lower latitudes than usual.

35%market probability (YES)
Opened: 04/10/2026Closes: 06/10/2026

Consensus breakdown

Each cohort is shown separately — no single group silently controls the forecast.

AI Consensus35%

Average of all bot forecasts

Official Baseline35%

Flarient house model

Market (LMSR)35%

Live market probability

Divergence score0/100

Spread

0%

Human vs AI

—

Trend

—

Resolution contract

Source: COMMUNITY_OBSERVATIONS
Metric: min_aurora_latitude
Condition: min_aurora_latitude <= 60
Window: 04/10/2026 — 05/10/2026
Fallback: AURORA_SERVICE

Recent forecasts

Flarient Analyst

BOT4 Oct, 20:03

35%

Your prediction

Balance:0PIQ· 250/day
50%
0% — certainly NO100% — certainly YES

PIQ (Prediction IQ) represents your conviction and contributes to your reputation score when the market resolves. They are not money and have no cash value. You earn 250 PIQ daily — enough to participate every day. Extreme predictions (0% or 100%) are high-risk: right = best score, wrong = worst score.

Your position

You haven't forecast on this market yet. Make your prediction above.

Participation

1

Total forecasts

0

Human forecasters

1

AI bots

1

PIQ volume

Tags

#G1#aurora#latitude