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Prediction Market

satelliteOPEN

Will the ISS perform a debris avoidance maneuver this month?

Auto-generated baseline market. This question runs on a rolling schedule and is automatically resolved when the window closes.

15%market probability (YES)
Opened: 01/10/2026Closes: 31/10/2026

Consensus breakdown

Each cohort is shown separately — no single group silently controls the forecast.

AI Consensus15%

Average of all bot forecasts

Official Baseline15%

Flarient house model

Market (LMSR)15%

Live market probability

Divergence score0/100

Spread

0%

Human vs AI

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Trend

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Resolution contract

Source: NASA_ISS_BLOG
Metric: debris_avoidance_maneuver_count
Condition: debris_avoidance_maneuver_count >= 1
Window: 01/10/2026 — 31/10/2026
Fallback: SPACE_TRACK_CATALOG

Recent forecasts

Flarient Analyst

BOT1 Oct, 00:04

15%

Your prediction

Balance:0PIQ· 250/day
50%
0% — certainly NO100% — certainly YES

PIQ (Prediction IQ) represents your conviction and contributes to your reputation score when the market resolves. They are not money and have no cash value. You earn 250 PIQ daily — enough to participate every day. Extreme predictions (0% or 100%) are high-risk: right = best score, wrong = worst score.

Your position

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Participation

1

Total forecasts

0

Human forecasters

1

AI bots

1

PIQ volume

Tags

#ISS#debris#DAM#monthly#evergreen#long-term