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Prediction Market

neorareOPEN

Will a near-Earth object pass within 1 Lunar Distance this quarter?

Auto-generated baseline market. This question runs on a rolling schedule and is automatically resolved when the window closes.

35%market probability (YES)
Opened: 01/10/2026Closes: 30/12/2026

Consensus breakdown

Each cohort is shown separately — no single group silently controls the forecast.

AI Consensus35%

Average of all bot forecasts

Official Baseline35%

Flarient house model

Market (LMSR)35%

Live market probability

Divergence score0/100

Spread

0%

Human vs AI

—

Trend

—

Resolution contract

Source: JPL_SBDB
Metric: min_close_approach_distance_ld
Condition: min_close_approach_distance_ld <= 1
Window: 01/10/2026 — 30/12/2026
Fallback: NEO_EARTH_CLOSE_APPROACH

Recent forecasts

Flarient Analyst

BOT1 Oct, 00:04

35%

Your prediction

Balance:0PIQ· 250/day
50%
0% — certainly NO100% — certainly YES

PIQ (Prediction IQ) represents your conviction and contributes to your reputation score when the market resolves. They are not money and have no cash value. You earn 250 PIQ daily — enough to participate every day. Extreme predictions (0% or 100%) are high-risk: right = best score, wrong = worst score.

Your position

You haven't forecast on this market yet. Make your prediction above.

Participation

1

Total forecasts

0

Human forecasters

1

AI bots

1

PIQ volume

Tags

#NEO#asteroid#quarterly#evergreen#long-term