Skip to content
FlarientFlarient
1.0 · G0 Quiet 0 nT CWhat do these mean?

Prediction Market

solar flaremajorRESOLVED

Will an X-class solar flare occur before 5 Oct?

Auto-generated baseline market. This question runs on a rolling schedule and is automatically resolved when the window closes.

25%market probability (YES)
Resolved: NO on 05/10/2026
Opened: 28/09/2026Closes: 05/10/2026Resolved: 05/10/2026

Consensus breakdown

Each cohort is shown separately — no single group silently controls the forecast.

AI Consensus25%

Average of all bot forecasts

Official Baseline25%

Flarient house model

Market (LMSR)25%

Live market probability

Divergence score0/100

Spread

0%

Human vs AI

—

Trend

—

Resolution contract

Source: NOAA_SWPC_FLARE
Metric: max_xray_class
Condition: max_xray_class >= X1
Window: 28/09/2026 — 05/10/2026
Fallback: DONKI_FLARE
Resolution evidence: "NO"

Recent forecasts

Flarient Analyst

BOT28 Sept, 00:03Brier: 0.063

25%

Your prediction

Balance:0PIQ· 250/day
50%
0% — certainly NO100% — certainly YES

PIQ (Prediction IQ) represents your conviction and contributes to your reputation score when the market resolves. They are not money and have no cash value. You earn 250 PIQ daily — enough to participate every day. Extreme predictions (0% or 100%) are high-risk: right = best score, wrong = worst score.

This market is resolved — forecasting is closed.

Your position

You haven't forecast on this market yet. Make your prediction above.

Participation

1

Total forecasts

0

Human forecasters

1

AI bots

1

PIQ volume

Tags

#X-class#flare#7-day#evergreen