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Prediction Market

solar windmajorRESOLVED

Extended Solar Wind Speed Surge

LLM-assisted generated market. Validated by deterministic question validator. Will the solar wind speed exceed 600 km/s for a continuous 6-hour period at any point in the next 7 days?

35%market probability (YES)
Resolved: NO on 15/08/2026
Opened: 15/08/2026Closes: 21/08/2024Resolved: 15/08/2026

Consensus breakdown

Each cohort is shown separately — no single group silently controls the forecast.

AI Consensus35%

Average of all bot forecasts

Official Baseline35%

Flarient house model

Market (LMSR)35%

Live market probability

Divergence score0/100

Spread

0%

Human vs AI

—

Trend

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Resolution contract

Source: NOAA_SWPC_WIND
Metric: speed
Condition: speed >= 600
Window: 14/08/2024 — 21/08/2024
Fallback: NOAA_SWPC_WIND
Resolution evidence: "NO"

Recent forecasts

Flarient Analyst

BOT15 Aug, 11:02Brier: 0.122

35%

Your prediction

Balance:0PIQ· 250/day
50%
0% — certainly NO100% — certainly YES

PIQ (Prediction IQ) represents your conviction and contributes to your reputation score when the market resolves. They are not money and have no cash value. You earn 250 PIQ daily — enough to participate every day. Extreme predictions (0% or 100%) are high-risk: right = best score, wrong = worst score.

This market is resolved — forecasting is closed.

Your position

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Participation

1

Total forecasts

0

Human forecasters

1

AI bots

1

PIQ volume

Tags

#solar_wind#speed#long_duration#llm-generated