Aurora visibility elevated — 62% probability

Observed

The NOAA SWPC OVATION model recorded a Kp index — a measure of geomagnetic disturbance on a scale of 0 to 9 — of 3.33, alongside an aurora visibility probability of 62 percent. Northern hemisphere auroral power input was recorded at zero gigawatts at the time of measurement.

Forecast

NOAA SWPC OVATION models currently estimate a 62 percent probability of aurora visibility under current geomagnetic conditions. No escalation to higher storm levels is indicated in the immediate forecast window.

Interpretation

A Kp value of around 3.33 represents mild to moderate geomagnetic activity, which can bring aurora displays to higher latitude regions such as northern Scandinavia, Canada, and Alaska. Observers further south are unlikely to see aurora under these conditions unless activity increases.

Flarient Analysis

Flarient assesses this event as a moderate aurora visibility opportunity, most relevant to observers already located at high latitudes. The 62 percent probability reflects a meaningful but not exceptional level of geomagnetic disturbance, and conditions could shift if solar wind parameters change in the coming hours. Skywatchers at mid-latitudes should monitor updates before travelling to observe.